The Final Countdown

Okay, so we all know the top six is manufactured excitement, it’s not something ‘real’ like getting to a cup final or fighting relegation. But it’s still impossible to deny it’s there, fans do care about getting into the top half of the league. So that being said, it is time that credit was given to the SPL. Yes, that’s right, credit. When is the last time anyone can remember twelve clubs in the top flight all having meaningful matches to play with ten league rounds left?

Admittedly the last five games will be a damp squib for the clubs who are 7^th and 8^th after the split. Having come close to sneaking a top half finish, they will be so far ahead of bottom that they will be playing friendlies. It is also possible that the sixth place side will be completely out of the Euro chase but that still means that 75% of the SPL will have competitive matches to play at the end of the year. Surely this is the kind of scenario the SPL was hoping for when it dreamed up this ridiculous notion of a split?

So, having lavished praise on the SPL, it is time to turn to the interesting part of the story. Will we make sixth place? It is safe to assume that Hearts and above are safe so that leaves ourselves, ICT and Kilmarnock fighting it out for the final spot. Here’s the FPC view of the run in…

March 12: Hearts v ICT, Kilmarnock v Dundee United, Livingston v Motherwell.

An interesting weekend this one with every team playing a match it could win. ICT have the toughest task on paper but Hearts have struggled in recent weeks, taking one point from their last nine. ICT are flying and their weekend point at Ibrox means they’ll hold no fears about Tynecastle. A draw. Killie have the easiest task with a home tie against dismal Dundee United. But at this stage of the season it is impossible to tell how relegation strugglers will react. Killie might have already resigned themselves to finishing in the lower half whilst United may finally wake up to their situation. This is another match which could go either way but the visitors defensive failings means a home win. Finally, we travel to Livingston for our last match pre CIS Cup Final. Will we take it easy to avoid injuries or will the players be determined to cement their final place? Are Livingston due another stinker after two consecutive wins or will they make it three in a row having found their form? This is possibly the hardest match to predict, so time to sit on the fence; another draw.

Table now: Motherwell 39, Kilmarnock 35, ICT 31.

March 16: ICT v Celtic.

Celtic will not relish their trip to the Highlands but given the chance they have to catch Rangers, a slip up looks unlikely. ICT have shocked Celtic before but if anything this will stop the visitors being complacent and they will edge it by a couple of goals.

Table now: Motherwell 39, Kilmarnock 35, ICT 31.

April 2/3: Dundee v Killie, ICT v Aberdeen, Motherwell v Rangers.

Oh dear. This could be a disastrous weekend for our top six ambitions. It is hard to see us taking anything from Rangers in the league – especially as we will have beaten them in the League Cup(!) – and even a draw would be a welcome bonus. Both our competitors have matches they could win but both are playing teams with big targets. Aberdeen could be in third place by now and whilst they probably won’t win at Inverness, a draw shouldn’t be beyond them. Dundee are in deep trouble now and could really do with winning a few games. However, it’s beginning to get to do or die stage for Killie and they should be too strong for the Dees.

Table now: Motherwell 39, Kilmarnock 38, ICT 32.

April 9: Aberdeen v Motherwell, Kilmarnock v ICT.

It’s getting tense by now, who’ll handle the pressure? Aberdeen will view this as a game they should win but we will not go there to roll over. It will be hard but a draw should not be impossible. The other game could do us a huge favour. If ICT do not get a better result than ours at Pittodrie, they are out of the running. If Killie don’t win, they’ll be relying on winning at Fir Park to have a chance. Hopefully the high stakes will turn this into a nervous affair at Rugby Park and both sides will have to settle for a point.

Table now: Motherwell 40, Kilmarnock 39, ICT 33.

April 12: ICT v Motherwell

This is our first chance to secure our place in the top six. We have already won in Inverness this season but that was before Craig Brewster took over. Under his leadership they deservedly beat us at Fir Park and have generally been very good. It is fair to say that no one in Motherwell will want to go into this match with ICT still having a chance of catching us. The points situation at the time will determine how we approach this match but if our predictions come true, we will be in an excellent position. This will essentially be a free game for us since a loss or a draw will still mean we need a point off Killie. We will go for it and have chances to win it but when do we ever make things easy? It’ll be a draw…

Table now: Motherwell 41, Kilmarnock 39, ICT 34.

April 16: Motherwell v Kilmarnock, ICT v Dundee

Not that it matters, Inverness will beat Dundee. They will have fallen just short of the top six but they will still be delighted with an excellent debut season in the SPL. Meanwhile, it is all on the line at Fir Park. Kilmarnock need the three points to jump us whilst a point is enough for us to stay sixth. Kilmarnock have defeated us three times out of three this year but they play best when they can sit in and hit on the break. They will need to force the game and this will play into our hands. Another nervous day is in store but we’ll sneak a win by the odd goal.

Table at split: Motherwell 44, Kilmarnock 39, ICT 37.

So, we make it by a full five points in the end but it will still go down to the last day.

Interestingly, on a game by game basis all of ICT’s games look like draws – given the slim chance of this, if they were to go win/loss instead (and beat us), they would still have a great chance of doing it. It’s going to be nervous and exciting but isn’t it better than being mid-table and having nothing to play for?

Come on the ‘Well!